Sea conditions are expected to be very rough, with squally winds reaching speeds of 60-70 km/h and gusts up to 80 km/h.
Cyclonic Storm “Asna” Approaches Pakistan: Heavy Rains, Strong Winds Expected
Karachi, August 30
The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) announced that Cyclonic Storm “Asna” has moved westward over the northeast Arabian Sea. As of Friday night, the storm is located approximately 120 km south of Karachi, 180 km southwest of Thatta, 250 km southeast of Ormara, and 440 km east-southeast of Gwadar. The storm’s current position is at Latitude 23.8 N and Longitude 66.6 E. According to PMD forecasts, Asna is expected to initially move west-northwestward before shifting to a west-southwestward trajectory.
Weather Warnings for Sindh and Balochistan
The PMD has issued warnings for several districts under the influence of Cyclone Asna. Rain and thunderstorms, accompanied by heavy downpours and squally winds with speeds of 60-70 km/h, gusting up to 80 km/h, are anticipated in Karachi, Badin, Thatta, Sujawal, Hyderabad, Tando Muhammad Khan, Tando Allahyar, Matiari, Jamshoro, and Dadu districts in Sindh until August 31. Similar weather conditions are expected in the districts of Hub, Lasbella, Awaran, Kech, and Gwadar in Balochistan until September 1.
The PMD has cautioned that the heavy rains could lead to waterlogging in low-lying areas along the Makran coast. Sea conditions are expected to remain rough to very rough, with squally winds continuing to reach speeds of 60-70 km/h, gusting up to 80 km/h. Fishermen from Sindh are advised to avoid venturing into the sea until August 31, while those from Balochistan should refrain from doing so until September 1.
Cyclone Asna’s Development and Impact
During a press conference, the Director General of the Meteorological Department, Sahibzada Khan, informed that Cyclone Asna had transformed into a deep depression upon reaching Rajasthan. He noted, “This is the first time in 60 years, since 1964, that such a cyclone has formed. Currently, it is located 200 kilometres south of Karachi and may intensify into a tropical storm within the next six hours.”
Khan emphasized that the severe low-pressure system is highly likely to evolve into a cyclone within the next six hours, potentially resulting in strong winds and heavy, torrential rain across Karachi Division, Tharparkar, Badin, Thatta, Sujawal, Hyderabad, Tando Muhammad Khan, Tando Allahyar, Matiari, Umerkot, Mirpurkhas, Sanghar, Jamshoro, Dadu, and Shaheed Benazirabad districts. Certain areas in Balochistan may also be affected.
Speaking about the monsoon rains, Khan mentioned that another spell of rain is expected in the upper regions from September 2 to 4. However, conditions in Sindh and Balochistan are expected to improve, with the monsoon showing more effects in the northern areas. He also added, “Despite these rains, water stress will remain in Mangla Dam in the upcoming season.”
Chief Meteorologist Dr. Sardar Sarfaraz described the situation as a “rare phenomenon,” noting that there is an 80% chance for a cyclonic storm to form as the deep depression moves from land to the sea under favorable conditions. He highlighted that cyclones are uncommon during the monsoon season and that, if it materializes, this would be the first cyclone in the Arabian Sea in August since 1976. The storm would be named ‘Asna,’ a name proposed by Pakistan, following the regional cyclone naming conventions set by a 13-country panel.
Karachi’s Precautions and Public Safety Alerts
Despite the storm not posing a direct threat to Pakistan’s coastline, its impact could still be significant. Torrential rains associated with the storm could lead to urban flooding and inundation in low-lying areas, including Karachi. The PMD has warned that sea conditions are likely to remain rough with squally winds of 50-60 km/h, gusting up to 70 km/h.
In response to the looming threat, Karachi Mayor Murtaza Wahab has urged residents to avoid unnecessary movement, especially bike riders, to stay safe. He also advised residents to call emergency services at 1339 in case of any emergencies. The Karachi commissioner’s office has announced a holiday for schools on August 30 (Friday) due to the anticipated severe weather.
Rain-Related Incidents and Broader Impact
Across Pakistan, incessant rainfall has already claimed nine lives, induced flash floods, and cut off road access in several regions. In Punjab, seven people lost their lives, and 18 others were injured as heavy rain caused widespread damage to infrastructure and triggered urban flooding in low-lying areas. According to the Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA), these casualties were reported between 2 pm on August 28 and 2 pm on Thursday.
In Gilgit-Baltistan, two people, including a tourist, were killed, and three others were wounded as rain-induced landslides and flash floods blocked the Karakoram Highway and Baltistan Road.
The PMD’s cyclone alert indicates that the weather system is likely to intensify further into a cyclonic storm by Friday and move initially in a west/southwest direction. The deep depression over the Rann of Kutch, India, has slowly moved west-southwestward during the last 12 hours and now lies about 250 km south/southeast of Karachi.
Under the influence of this system, widespread rain and wind-thunderstorms with scattered heavy to very heavy falls are expected in several districts, including Awaran, Kech, and Gwadar, from August 30 until September 1. The PMD also cautioned that such torrential rains could trigger pluvial flooding or inundation in low-lying areas of Sindh, Balochistan, and southern Punjab. Flash flooding is also a concern in the hill torrents of Dera Ghazi Khan and local streams in Karachi, Hyderabad, and other areas.
Fishermen in Sindh have been advised not to venture into the open sea until August 31, while those in Balochistan are warned to avoid the sea until September 1. The PMD’s cyclone warning center in Karachi is closely monitoring the system and will continue to issue updates accordingly.
Dr. Sarfaraz noted that cyclones during the monsoon season are typically short-lived, often decaying within a few hours due to changes in sea surface temperature and wind conditions. Meteorologist Anjum Nazir highlighted the rarity of such events, stating that during the monsoon, there is only a 1% or 2% chance of a depression or low pressure turning into a cyclonic storm.
Currently, a wet spell prevails over Sindh, particularly in the southern and central parts of the province, as well as the neighboring Indian state of Gujarat. The Thar district received the highest amount of rainfall in Sindh on Thursday — 347 millimeters across seven tehsils.
Conclusion
As Cyclone Asna continues to evolve, the PMD and local authorities remain vigilant, closely monitoring its progress and potential impacts. Residents are urged to stay informed and take necessary precautions to ensure safety during this rare and potentially dangerous weather event.