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Chinese Robot Manufacturers Vie with Tesla in Advancing Humanoid Workers

Dozens of Chinese Companies Unveil Innovative Humanoid Robots for Home and Workplace Environments

BEIJING:

China, already a dominant force in the electric vehicle (EV) market, is now setting its sights on a new frontier: battery-powered humanoid robots. These robots are expected to replace human workers on assembly lines, particularly in the automotive industry. At this week’s World Robot Conference in Beijing, over two dozen Chinese companies showcased their innovative humanoid robots designed for both home and industrial environments. The conference also featured a range of high-precision components necessary for building these advanced machines.

China’s ambition to lead in humanoid robotics mirrors its strategy in the electric vehicle sector, which saw a rapid rise thanks to government support, intense price competition, and a robust supply chain. “China’s humanoid robot industry demonstrates clear advantages in supply-chain integration and mass production capabilities,” noted Arjen Rao, an analyst at the China-based Lead Leo Research Institute.

This push into robotics is underpinned by President Xi Jinping’s policy to foster “new productive forces” in technology. In January, Beijing launched a state-backed fund of $1.4 billion dedicated to robotics, and in July, Shanghai announced a similar $1.4 billion fund focused on humanoid robots. The robots displayed at the conference benefited from the same domestic suppliers that have supported the rapid growth of the EV industry, including manufacturers of batteries and sensors.

Tesla

Goldman Sachs projects that the global market for humanoid robots could reach $38 billion by 2035, with nearly 1.4 million units shipped for various applications. The cost of materials for these robots had dropped to about $150,000 each by 2023, excluding research and development costs. “There is significant potential to reduce costs further,” said Hu Debo, CEO of Shanghai Kepler Exploration Robotics, a company inspired by Tesla’s humanoid robot, Optimus.

Hu’s company is currently developing its fifth version of a worker robot and aims to price it under $30,000. This development reflects China’s proficiency in fast iteration and mass production.

The impact of Tesla’s Optimus robot has been likened to the “catfish effect” observed when Tesla entered the Chinese EV market, pushing local competitors to accelerate their own innovations. Introduced in 2021, Tesla’s Optimus has been marketed as potentially more significant than its vehicle business over time. The robot’s design leverages artificial intelligence (AI) similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” software. Although Tesla is acknowledged as having an early lead in AI, China’s capability to drive down production costs poses a significant challenge to Tesla’s dominance.

At the Beijing conference, Tesla’s Optimus was showcased alongside its Cybertruck but was outshone by many Chinese humanoid robots that demonstrated a range of movements such as waving, walking, and shrugging. Despite this, Optimus remained a popular attraction, drawing crowds eager to photograph the prototype. Tesla has reiterated its plans to transition from prototypes to small-scale production of Optimus in the coming year.

Hong Kong-listed UBTECH Robotics is also advancing in this space, with its robots undergoing testing at car factories, including a recent deal with Audi. “By next year, our goal is to begin mass manufacturing,” said Sotirios Stasinopoulos, UBTECH’s project manager. The company aims to deploy up to 1,000 robots in factories, marking a significant step towards large-scale implementation. UBTECH’s robots incorporate Nvidia chips but rely on Chinese components for over 90% of their parts.

Currently, the production of industrial robots, such as massive arms used for welding, has been dominated by foreign companies like Japan’s Fanuc, Switzerland’s ABB, and Germany’s Kuka, which is now owned by China’s Midea. China leads globally in the installation of factory robots, with more than triple the number found in North America, according to the International Federation of Robotics.

Vice-Minister of Industry and Information Technology Xin Guobin emphasized at the conference that China is making substantial progress in the global robotics industry, aligning with Xi Jinping’s vision. While China has set a target for mass production of humanoid robots by 2025, experts like LeadLeo Research Institute’s Rao predict that widespread commercial application of humanoid robots could still be 20 to 30 years away. The path ahead is paved with both challenges and opportunities as China continues to push the boundaries in robotic innovation.

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